Pre-Market | Fri 30 Oct 2026

1. Main overnight driver

US mega-cap tech earnings weighed on technology shares even as Q3 GDP grew 3.4% annualised (consensus 3.1%) and September PCE inflation rose 3.6% y/y. [CNBC, 29 Oct, ~4:30 PM IST] Means: strong growth alongside sticky inflation may keep Fed-hike pricing alive; CME FedWatch reportedly showed over 77% odds of a December hike. [CNBC via CME, 29 Oct] Risk: a tech-led risk-off mood could spill into emerging-market flows.

2. Markets

US close (29 Oct, 1:30 AM IST): S&P 500 −0.30%, Nasdaq Composite −1.38%, Dow −0.25%. [CNBC; AP] Means: losses appeared concentrated in large tech; the Russell 2000 rose 1.01%. [PrimerIQ] Risk: further after-hours earnings reactions are possible.

Asia, early trade (30 Oct, at the open; not closes): Kospi about −4.1%, Nikkei 225 about −1.47%. [TradingKey, 30 Oct] Means: regional sentiment looks cautious. Risk: these figures will likely have moved by the time of reading.

Flows (29 Oct, cash, net provisional): FII/FPI net sellers Rs 943.60 crore; DII net buyers Rs 1,924.41 crore. [NSE provisional data as reported by CNBC-TV18, 29 Oct evening IST] Means: one day's flow is generally a weak signal. Risk: provisional figures are subject to revision.

3. Rates and FX

US yields (29 Oct, ~4:30 PM IST, intraday, per market reports): 10-year 4.964%, 2-year 4.629%, both lower. [CNBC] Means: bonds appeared to rally despite firm data. Risk: Fed speakers may return today as the blackout lifts. [CNBC]

USD/INR (29 Oct, ~3:30 PM IST close): 95.26, little changed, after a two-week intraday low; traders cited likely RBI intervention. [Reuters via GuruTrade; PTI via ThePrint, 8:47 PM IST] Risk: crude prices and dollar demand.

4. Commodities

Crude (29 Oct settle, ~1:00 AM IST 30 Oct): Dec Brent US$114.88 (−0.38%), Dec WTI US$102.00 (−0.76%), on reported US–Iran diplomatic outreach. [Reuters via Euronext; DTN] Dec Brent expires today; an OPEC+ meeting is reported for Sunday. [The Edge] Means: India's import bill likely remains the main channel. Risk: Gulf headlines.

Gold (29 Oct settle): COMEX Dec US$4,031.40 (−0.50%). [The Edge]

5. Calendar (IST)

• BOJ: Decision expected today; timing not fixed by the BOJ, around 8:30 AM IST per third-party calendars. [BOJ; Investing.com]
• India: September fiscal data (CGA) and RBI weekly forex reserves, expected later today. [Investing.com; for-ex.news]
• No NSE F&O expiry today; BSE's monthly expiry was yesterday. [BSE contract specs]
• 6:00 PM: US Q3 Employment Cost Index (8:30 AM ET). [BLS schedule]
• Next week: US midterms Tue 3 Nov. [TradingKey] US moves to EST Sun 1 Nov, so US data shifts to 7:00 PM IST.

6. News

The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.50%, citing energy-driven inflation risks. [ECB press release, 29 Oct, 6:45 PM IST] The FOMC held at 3.75%–4.00% on 28 Oct. [Federal Reserve] Means: major central banks appear to be on hold for now. Risk: energy-led inflation could shift that stance.

7. Concept of the day: the Employment Cost Index

The ECI tracks quarterly changes in what employers pay for wages, salaries and benefits, using a fixed mix of jobs so shifts in workforce composition don't distort it. [BLS] It is watched as a gauge of labour-cost pressure.

8. Risks to watch

• If the BOJ signals faster normalisation, yen moves could ripple through Asian risk appetite.
• If the ECI runs firm, December hike odds could rise, which has typically supported the dollar, historically a headwind for the rupee.
• If US–Iran talks stall, crude-supply worries could return.

9. Disclaimer

Educational only, not investment advice. Virdi Research is not registered with SEBI or any other regulator as an investment adviser or research analyst. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investments in securities markets are subject to market risks; read all related documents carefully. Trading in derivatives (F&O) carries substantial risk of loss.