Pre-Market | Thu 29 Oct 2026

The Fed held rates, but two policymakers dissented in favour of a hike. Brent settled above US$115. US GDP and PCE data and the ECB decision are due this evening (IST).

A. Global cues

US close (Wed 28 Oct): The S&P 500 rose 0.28%, the Nasdaq Composite 0.27% and the Dow 0.19%, a third straight gain for all three, after the Fed held rates. [MarketWatch, 28 Oct 2026, 4:12 PM ET; CNBC, 28 Oct 2026]

Fed: The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.75%–4.00% on a 10–2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favour of a 0.25 percentage point increase. The statement said "Inflation remains elevated." [Federal Reserve FOMC statement, 28 Oct 2026, 2:00 PM EDT / 11:30 PM IST]

Asia (early-trade snapshots, Thu 29 Oct; not closes, and they will have moved by the time of reading): Nikkei 225 up about 0.87%, Topix down about 0.2%, Kospi up nearly 1.5%, S&P/ASX 200 up about 0.22%. [NDTV Profit, "Asian Markets Today", 29 Oct 2026] Yonhap had the Kospi up 1.14% at 9:25 AM KST (5:55 AM IST). [Yonhap, 29 Oct 2026]

Crude: December Brent settled at US$115.32 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, up US$1.44 (+1.26%). December WTI settled at US$102.78 on NYMEX, up 2.88%. [Xinhua, 29 Oct 2026; CNBC, 28 Oct 2026] Reports cited a WSJ report that the US had told Gulf states to prepare for renewed strikes on Iran. [CNBC, 28 Oct 2026]

US dollar index (DXY): Down about 0.2% on 28 Oct, near 102.1. These are secondary-source readings, not an ICE settlement. [CNBC; FXStreet; Newsquawk, 28 Oct 2026]

US Treasury yields (28 Oct close): The 2-year yield was 4.731% (−0.4 bp) and the 10-year 5.044% (+5.2 bp, its biggest rise since 28 Sept), so the curve steepened. [MarketWatch, 28 Oct 2026, 4:12 PM ET]

USD/INR (28 Oct): The rupee closed at 95.22 per dollar, against 95.115 in the previous session. [Reuters via Business Recorder, 28 Oct 2026] The FBIL reference rate was 95.2278. [RBI website, FBIL reference rate, 28 Oct 2026]

B. Previous session recap (Wed 28 Oct)

Reports linked IT weakness to the Fed wait and oil & gas weakness to higher crude [India Today; Business Standard].

D. Institutional flows (provisional, Wed 28 Oct, cash market)

• FII/FPI: net buyers, Rs 871.83 crore
• DII: net buyers, Rs 643.35 crore

[MSEI, "FII/DII trading activity on MSE, NSE and BSE", 28 Oct 2026; CNBC-TV18, 28 Oct 2026] These figures are provisional and subject to revision. Final FPI data is published by NSDL. These are cash-market figures only. Neither is a directional signal.

F. Macro calendar (times in IST)

• Today: BSE Sensex monthly F&O expiry (last Thursday of the month). [BSE contract specifications, bseindia.com]
• Today: Q2 results span coal, paints, aviation, retail, cement, consumer goods and other industries. [ET Now; FlashFinance, accessed 29 Oct 2026]
• Today: India's Index of Services Production is scheduled for release (time not specified). No RBI policy event is scheduled; the MPC last met on 5–7 Oct. [MoSPI Advance Release Calendar 2026-27; RBI Bulletin, October 2026]
• Today: The BOJ two-day meeting begins. The decision is due Fri 30 Oct (time not fixed), followed by Governor Ueda's press conference at 12:00 noon IST. [Bank of Japan]
• 6:00 PM: US Q3 GDP (advance) and September personal income and outlays, including PCE; weekly initial jobless claims. [BEA; US DOL] US daylight time runs until 1 Nov.
• 6:45 PM: ECB policy decision; press conference at 7:15 PM. [ECB]
• Next week: The RBA meets Tue 3 Nov. [Swingfolio, 29 Oct 2026]

Conditional event reads

• US GDP and PCE: If Q3 growth and core PCE both come in firmer than expected, the case for a December Fed hike could strengthen, which typically supports US yields and the dollar. Softer prints could ease that pressure. A firmer dollar and higher US yields have historically weighed on emerging-market currencies, including the rupee.
• ECB: A tighter-than-expected tone could lift the euro and weigh on the dollar index, and a softer tone could do the opposite. For India, the main channels are the dollar and global risk appetite.
• Crude: With Brent above US$110, India's import bill is the main channel. Sustained supply-risk headlines could keep pressure on the rupee and on input costs in crude-sensitive industries. A pullback would ease that pressure.
• Q2 results: Management commentary on crude-linked inputs and freight may show how the oil move is feeding into margins at the industry level.
• Fed follow-through: Two dissents in favour of a hike raise the weight of incoming US data in rate expectations.

These are conditional readings, not forecasts.

Data verification notes

• Asia figures are early-trade snapshots, not closes.
• DXY readings come from secondary sources, not an ICE settlement.
• FII/DII figures are provisional exchange data; NSDL publishes final FPI data.
• The Index of Services Production release time was not specified by MoSPI.
• Every figure above carries its source and date. No figure is estimated by Virdi Research.

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